2018年11月17日托福考试阅读预测机经（版本合集！）

本周六将迎来2018年11月17日的托福考试，大家在做好充分准备的同时，来阅读一下小编为大家整理的有关本场考试的预测机经，缓解一下紧张的心情吧！以下是本场考试阅读预测机经。

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一、文明衰落引起很多人的研究兴趣。其中一个理论是认为高强度的农业造成了生态系统的崩溃：玛雅人口的数量和密度都比较大，为了供养这些人口，玛雅人从事高强度的农业，对土地施加的压力越来越大，最终造成生态系统极其脆弱，在不可预知的气候变化来临时崩溃了。也有人认为人口与农业只是导火索，更加直接的使得玛雅文明灭绝的原因在于食物短缺：因为玛雅农业主要依靠一种在沼泽里抬起来的高地系统，一年四季都可以进行农业生产，因为流失的土壤营养可以通过高地周围的水渠底部挖泥，再把泥巴堆回到高地而循环获取，前提条件是水渠里必须有稳定的水位，而严重的干旱大大降低了水位使得高地农田系统不再起作用，这是天灾，有地质证据证明，玛雅文明消失和历史一次大干旱时间相同;除此之外也有人祸，玛雅各城邦猛烈竞争，竞相修建起纪念碑，耗费了大量的人力物力，使得农业生产充满压力。

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二、按照学术文章的常见思路打开：引出学术话题(一万年前北美巨型哺乳动物大量灭绝)，提出假说(人类的过度猎杀所致overhunting)，进而对假说证据的寻找，然后又说这个说法太简单了，肯定还有别的原因，比如气候干旱，和最终假说破绽的指出(同时代被人类过度猎杀的野牛bison却没有灭绝，一直持续到了19世纪，所以单靠人类猎杀不足以导致灭绝);于是提出另一假说，进入同样的循环证明的过程。

三、the origins of plant and animal domestication(重复2017年7月1日北美题目)

说的是生命的形成。刚开始说地球早期火山爆发使得地球上有很多大气，后来就形成了一些简单的植物，后来这些植物吸收了那些甲烷和二氧化碳光合作用产生了氧气和水(后来有了海)，那些简单生物就在海里形成了。洋气多了以后形成了一个氧气保护膜，使得地球气温不太高，生物不受SUV上海(这里有一个对比)，太阳系上其他行星因为没有这个氧气保护层所以没办法形成生命。

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真题来源：2015-1-10CN

Artisans in Sixteenth-Century Europe 16世纪欧洲的工匠

For centuries European artisans had operated in small, autonomous handcraft businesses, but by the sixteenth century an evolving economic system—moving toward modern capitalism, with its free-market pricing, new organization of production, investments, and so on—had started to erode their stable and relatively prosperous position. What forces contributed to the decline of the artisan?

几个世纪以来，欧洲的工匠们一直经营着小型的、自主的手工业企业，但到了16世纪，一个不断发展的经济体系——它以自由市场定价、新的生产组织、投资组织等等——开始侵蚀他们稳定和相对繁荣的地位。是什么力量导致了工匠的衰落?

In a few industries there appeared technological innovations that cost more to install and operate than artisans—even associations of artisans—could afford. For example, in iron production, such specialized equipment as blast furnaces, tilt hammers, wire-drawing machines, and stamping, rolling, and slitting mills became more familiar components of the industry. Thus the need for fixed capital (equipment and buildings used in production) soared. Besides these items, expensive in their own right, facilities for water, storage, and deliveries were needed. In addition, pig (raw) iron turned out by blast furnaces could not be forged until refined further in a new intermediate stage. In late sixteenth-century Antwerp, where a skilled worker earned 125 to 250 guilders a year, a large blast furnace alone cost 3,000 guilders, and other industrial equipment was equally or more expensive.

在一些行业中出现了技术创新，其安装和运营成本超过了艺人(甚至艺人协会)的承受能力。例如，在钢铁生产中，高炉、倾斜铁锤、拉丝机、冲压、轧制和纵切机等专业设备成为行业中较为熟悉的部件。因此，对固定资本(用于生产的设备和建筑物)的需求激增。除了这些东西，它们本身也很昂贵，需要水、储存和运送设备。此外，高炉生产的生铁在新中间阶段进一步精炼后，才能锻造出来。在16世纪晚期的安特卫普，一个熟练工人一年能挣125到250荷兰盾，一个大的高炉就需要3000荷兰盾，其他的工业设备也一样或者更贵。

Raw materials, not equipment, constituted artisans' major expense in most traders, however. Whereas in 1583 an Antwerp silk weaver paid 12 guilders for a loom (and made small payments over many years to pay off the debt for purchasing the loom), every six weeks he or she had to lay out 24 guilders for the 2 pounds of raw silk required to make a piece of cloth. Thus access to cheap and plentiful primary materials was a constant preoccupation for independent producers. Using local materials might allow even the poorest among them to avoid reliance on merchant suppliers. The loss of nearby sources could therefore be devastating. As silk cultivation waned around the Spanish cities of Cordoba and Toledo, weavers in these cities were forced to become employees of merchants who put out raw silk from Valencia and Murcia provinces. In the Dutch Republic, merchants who imported unprocessed salt from France, Portugal, and Spain gained control of the salt-refining industry once exploitation of local salt marshes was halted for fear that dikes (which held back the sea from the low-lying Dutch land) would be undermined.

然而，原材料，而不是设备，构成了大多数商人的主要支出。而在1583年安特卫普丝绸编织支付12个荷兰盾的织机(并使小多年来偿还债务支付购买织机),他或她必须每六个星期制定24个荷兰盾2磅的生丝需要一块布。因此，对于独立生产商来说，获得廉价而充足的初级原料一直是他们的当务之急。使用当地材料可能使其中最贫穷的国家避免依赖商人供应商。因此，附近水源的损失可能是毁灭性的。随着西班牙科尔多瓦和托莱多等城市丝绸种植的衰落，这些城市的织工被迫成为商人的雇员，这些商人从巴伦西亚和穆尔西亚省输出生丝。在荷兰共和国，商人们从法国、葡萄牙和西班牙进口未经加工的盐，一旦对当地盐沼的开发被停止，他们就获得了盐精炼工业的控制权，因为他们担心堤坝(将海水从地势低洼的荷兰土地上阻挡出去)会被破坏。

Credit was necessary for production but created additional vulnerabilities for artisans. Prices for industrial products lagged behind those of raw materials and foodstuffs, and this, coupled with rising taxes, made it difficult for many producers to repay their creditors. Periodic downturns, when food prices shot up and demand for manufactures fell off, drove them further into debt or even into bankruptcy, from which they might emerge only by agreeing to sell their products exclusively to merchants or fellow artisans who extended them loans. Frequent enough during periods of growth, such credit crises became deeper and lasted longer after about 1570, as did war-related disruptions of raw-material supplies and markets.

信贷对于生产是必要的，但也给工匠们带来了额外的漏洞。工业产品的价格落后于原材料和食品的价格，加上不断上涨的税收，使得许多生产者难以偿还他们的债权人。周期性的经济低迷，当食品价格飙升，制造业需求下降时，会使他们进一步陷入债务甚至破产的境地，他们可能只有同意将产品完全卖给商人或其他工匠，而这些商人或工匠会向他们提供贷款。在经济增长时期，类似的信贷危机变得更加严重，在大约1570年之后持续的时间更长，与战争相关的原材料供应和市场中断也是如此。

Artisans' autonomy was imperiled, too, by restrictions on their access to markets. During the sixteenth century, a situation like this often resulted from the concentration of export trade in a few great storage and distribution centers. The disappearance of regional markets where weavers in Flanders (what is now northern Belgium) had previously bought flax and sold linen left them at the mercy of big-city middlemen, who quickly turned them into domestic workers. In a similar fashion, formerly independent producers in southern Wiltshire in England, who had bought yarn from spinners or local brokers and sold their cloth to merchants in nearby Salisbury, became subject to London merchants who monopolized both wool supplies and woolens exports.

工匠们进入市场的限制也危及了他们的自主权。在16世纪，这种情况常常是由于出口贸易集中在几个大的储藏和配送中心造成的。弗兰德斯(现在的比利时北部)的纺织工人曾经购买亚麻并出售亚麻布，而当地市场的消失让他们在大城市的中间商的摆布下，这些中间商很快就把他们变成了佣人。同样，在英格兰南部威尔特郡，从前的独立生产者从纺纱机或当地经纪人那里购买纱线，然后把纱线卖给附近的索尔兹伯里的商人，现在成了伦敦商人的奴隶，他们垄断了羊毛供应和羊毛出口。

With good reason, finally, urban artisans feared the growth of industries in the countryside. For one thing, they worried that the spread of village crafts would reduce their supply of raw materials, driving up prices. City producers also knew that rural locations enjoyed lower living costs, wages, and taxes, and often employed fewer or simplified processes. These advantages became a major preoccupation as competition intensified in the 1570s and 1580s.

最后，有充分的理由，城市工匠们害怕农村工业的发展。一方面，他们担心乡村工艺品的泛滥会减少他们的原材料供应，从而推高价格。城市生产者也知道，农村地区的生活成本、工资和税收较低，往往采用较少或简化的流程。随着1570年代和80年代竞争加剧，这些优势成为人们关注的焦点。

题目：

1. Which of the sentences below best expresses the essential information in the highlighted sentence in the passage? Incorrect choices change the meaning in important ways or leave out essential information.

A. In the sixteenth century, the European economy moved toward a system of free-market pricing, new ways of production, and investments.

B. Before the sixteenth century, European makers of handcrafts enjoyed stability, autonomy, and relative prosperity.

C. By the sixteenth century, the rise of capitalism began to weaken the autonomy and relative prosperity of European artisans.

D. European artisans operated small, autonomous businesses before modern capitalism emerged in the sixteenth century.

2. The word “Besides” in the passage is closet in meaning to

A. In addition to

B. More important than

C. Different from

D. Together with

3. According to paragraph 2, how did technological advances contribute to the economic decline of artisans?

A. Artisans had no place to store or use the new machines.

B. Goods produced by the new technology were cheaper than those produced by artisans.

C. The fixed costs of remaining in business became very high.

D. Artisans did not know how to use the new machines.

4. The word “preoccupation” in the passage is closet in meaning to

A. necessity

B. concern

C. struggle

D. uncertainty

5. In paragraph 3, why does the author provide the information about an Antwerp silk weaver' s costs in 1583?

A. To describe some typical costs in the silk-weaving industry

B. To support the statement that artisans' main expense was materials, not equipment

C. To argue against the view that artisans did not have to borrow money to buy equipment

D. To show that materials were cheap and plentiful for most artisans

6. What can be inferred from paragraph 3 about local materials?

A. They were of higher quality than imported materials.

B. They were usually more plentiful than imported materials.

C. They remained available even after merchants began to control the industries.

D. They tended to be more affordable than materials supplied by merchants.

7. According to paragraph 3, which of the following was sometimes an effect on artisans of the loss of local sources of their primary materials?

A. They had to sell their products to merchants.

B. They needed to take loans in order to buy the materials from merchants.

C. They could no longer afford to be independent producers.

D. They imported the materials from distant sources.

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2018年11月17日托福预测机经

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